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| سعیدبیوگرافی | پیوندها | تماس |
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آیا مردم ایران انقلاب خواهند کرد و یا راه تحول تدریجی را در پیش خواهند گرفت؟ جنبش انقلابی دهه ۵۰ را میتوان در سه مرحله بررسی کرد. (۲۳ دسامبر ۲۰۲۵)
Will the Iranian people pursue a revolution today or will they take the path of gradual transformation? Saeed Barzin The revolutionary movement of the 1950s can be examined in three stages. The first stage began in late 1976. It lasted about a year. The characteristic of this period was relatively quiet and spontaneous protests by intellectuals. There were open letters criticizing government policy and the need to implement the constitution. There was no clear leadership, and activities were initiated by individuals and small groups. During this time, the political atmosphere of the country underwent a fundamental change and transformation. The second stage lasted about a year as well. This stage witnessed the formation of widespread, organized, and spontaneous street protests by the masses of the people, which in some cases led to bloody clashes with the security forces. At this stage, Ayatollah Khomeini imposed his leadership on the political scene. The third stage, in 1979, lasted only three days, witnessing intense and bloody clashes between the revolutionaries and the armed forces. With the declaration of neutrality of the armed forces (and in fact the fall), the military and state institutions were overthrown and the revolution triumphed. One can ask whether we are witnessing a repetition of such a cycle today? Will another revolution take place in Iran today? Undoubtedly, the political climate of the country has changed over the past few years. The political space has been transformed and political criticism and dialogue have become more widespread. Intellectual, political, and organizational forces are active on the social scene. In fact, similar to 1976, we have entered a more open space. We are also witnessing broader mass activity, the best example of which is the fight against compulsory hijab. Here an element of violence can also be observed in the confrontations between the two sides. Here, the regime is seriously weak in accepting and correcting its mistakes, and foreign powers strongly encourage the a revolution in Iran. However, these two historical periods cannot be considered the same. For one thing, we see that the government has more power and is more flexible than the Pahlavi government in changing its positions, as well as managing the political scene, and also using violence. In addition, differences of opinion among political forces are very serious and deep and prevents the formation of a credible opposition. Furthermore, the masses, especially the middle classes, are pessimistic about the issue of overthrow and revolution. Based on this, it may be said that despite the similarities between these two historical periods, the possibility of revolution in Iran today is much less. (December 23, 2025)
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